Post by
YourMomSA | 2020-05-05 | 22:23:48
Regarding EZY3210's original question, I don't think anyone can properly assess where he lost ground to the leaders without knowing his boat's name. With the name, we can check his track against the leaders' tracks and may be able to provide some useful insight.
Regarding the Africa decision, I have a few thoughts on that... With reference to Cvetan's experience comment... Experienced users know which winds tend to be reliable and which tend to be more unstable and therefore produce less reliable routings. I'm a big fan of the trade winds, and will often look for opportunities to deviate from Zezo's recommended route in favor of a route that gets into the trade winds. In this race, I was looking at routes from Day 1 that would get me into the trades ASAP. I looked for routes, that early, that went to the area of the Canary Islands. I tried routings to that destination, and I also experimented with destinations near Brazil, to see if I could force the router to try routes like that. My experience was telling me that would be the best route, and I'm kicking myself now for not trusting my instincts. (Although people who watch me know that sometimes when I insist on trusting my instincts, I produce humorously bad results... so it isn't as simple as it sounds).
The thing is... I couldn't force the router (early in the race) to give me a believable route like that. During those early days, the wind near La Palma was forecast to be strong enough to get around the corner and down to the trade winds without slowing down enough to justify the extra distance of sailing to the Canaries. That's why everyone (including me) continued on that route for the first few days.
When Zezo suddenly, briefly, showed a route that went near Africa, it was because the forecast for our arrival at La Palma suddenly dropped to be very weak winds, while forecasts near the African coast were looking stronger. If you made the turn toward Africa, it probably would have continued to tell you to go... but once you sailed a little closer to La Palma, it was no longer a good move. Why didn't I go when I saw it, even though I generally like that route? Although I like the trade winds, I don't like to commit to sudden large course changes to avoid light wind forecasts that appear suddenly. They often get less bad in the next forecast, making you regret the sudden course change. I was wrong, but had a reason.
The African route also had a stability risk. Specifically, the forecast included a light wind patch to navigate before hitting the trades and accelerating away. I remember seeing Toppen in 4 kts of wind, near the coast, and I also remember seeing that within a couple hours, he was going to be in 12+ kts. That was a critical time, because in those same 2 hours, the wind he was starting in was going to diminish to 3 kts, and then eventually to 2. This is a "rich getting richer" scenario (as opposed to a "fleet compression" scenario, where the trailing boats have more wind and gain on on the leaders). This was an extreme "rich getting richer" scenario. Anyone who bridged that light wind patch and got into the good winds accelerated away from the rest. Anyone who didn't make it lost a lot of distance by the time they got up to speed.
I think that's probably another reason why the router's recommendation for that route was temporary. The timing of various unstable localized changes had to be just right for it to work. The router would only recommend it when all of the pieces were forecast to work out as required.
Questioning these situations, and figuring out why they worked out the way they did, is a big part of building the experience to make quality decisions in future races. But... as Buddha, Tipap, and several other top boats demonstrated, no amount of analysis and experience will result in always making the right decision. Of course, if it did, this would get boring.