
Post by
YourMomSA | 2018-04-05 | 15:57:52
I think Zottl's analysis covers it well, except that there are boats ahead of me by more than an hour in my area. Djonny, Raketa, Awkward Turtle, etc. I think I've gained on them lately, so it might not still be an hour, but it was more than an hour the last time we crossed while I was awake. I wouldn't be surprised if there are 100+ boats ahead of me in the south. I'm hoping I'm wrong about that, but with the ranking system as it is, I have no way to know until we move up the leaderboard.
So... Per Zottl's analysis with the above comments... The boats at the front of the South group have probably 6-7 hours on the current leaders, based on the current forecast... but those leaders have leverage such that if the forecast changes, we could suddenly see the complete opposite. That north group still has a chance, but they need the forecast to change.
That's similar to why I was looking at Vicvol and La Route Logique and asking if anyone knows of anyone ahead of them up there. Zottl is correct that with the current forecast, they're completely screwed. But they have enough leverage that if some kind of huge change occurs in the forecast, they could suddenly look much better.
On the other hand, the larger fraction of the original North group that has decided to cut their losses and head south has eliminated their leverage. They're stuck behind the current leaders no matter what happens to the forecast. They have a chance to pick up some of the South group with a forecast change, and some of them are good enough to simply catch the back of the original South group, butthey won't be catching boats like brigitte and Nicky without some kind of freak lucky flyer.